Just this last week, AI company Anthropic said the US government ordered them to restrict access to advanced models on national security grounds. AI has become a contest over access, influence and strategic leverage. But, a new assessment from think tank the Tech Policy Design Institute (TPDi) shows Australia can compete.
The report – Expanding AI Sovereignty to AI Agency – was produced in consultation with government, industry, research and civil society, and funded by the Australian Computer Society and the Department of Industry, Science and Resources. The resulting consensus is that Australia’s future in AI will depend on whether the nation recognises and capitalises on its AI assets.
“The data shows Australia is in a stronger position than we give ourselves credit for, we have firm foundations and significant potential to harness,” says TPDi co-founder and lead author Zoe Jay Hawkins.
“The assessment allows us to understand our strengths and more deliberately leverage them to fill our weaknesses. Australia has valuable cards in its hand. The opportunity now is to play them strategically – just like the Prime Minister has leveraged Australia’s gas reserves to secure diesel supply.”
The AI race isn’t what most people think it is
Recently, much of the discussion around AI has been dominated by just a handful of tech giants building ever-larger foundation models. The narrative suggests that countries either develop these technologies themselves or become permanently dependent on those that do.
The TPDi report argues that view misses the point. After consulting more than 250 experts across sectors, the institute assessed Australia’s position in 103 capabilities that together underpin the AI ecosystem.
Australia achieved very high agency in eight areas, high agency in another 58, and low agency in just two.
In other words, while Australia isn’t an AI superpower, it’s not a bystander. It occupies a strong position in several areas that are increasingly important as AI moves from research labs into the economy and the world.
Australia’s hidden advantages
The report identifies eight capabilities where Australia already holds a position of significant strength:
- Strategic and critical minerals
- Medical data
- Geospatial data
- Environmental and natural resources data
- Demographic data
- Infrastructure data
- Computer vision model development
- International influence and norm-shaping
Taken together, these capabilities highlight opportunities for Australia’s AI future.
While Silicon Valley might dominate headlines, Australia has some of the world’s richest datasets in health, environmental monitoring, infrastructure and population trends. These assets have the potential to underpin specialised AI systems with real-world commercial value.
For industries such as mining, agriculture, healthcare, logistics and emergency management, the report suggests Australia’s competitive advantage may lie in building the smartest applications, rather than the biggest models.
From critical minerals to bargaining power
One noticeable finding is the strategic role Australia’s natural resources could play in the AI economy.
As demand for advanced chips booms, access to critical minerals is vital. Australia already sits on significant reserves of many materials needed to support global semiconductor supply chains.
These assets could provide Australia with leverage in securing access to the technologies needed to power its own AI ambitions.
But the broader message from the report is that Australia does not need to compete in every area. Trying to build a domestic equivalent of OpenAI or manufacture cutting-edge AI chips at scale may sound exciting, but the report suggests those are not the areas where Australia has a natural advantage.
Australia may not control the world’s most advanced AI models. But it does have world-class data assets, critical resources, growing infrastructure and substantial international influence. Now it’s over to Australia to make the most of these AI opportunities.
Hero image: Shutterstock, AI Generated.